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Adam's avatar

I find this critique of crypto-everything quite convincing: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2021/04/why-cryptocurrency-is-a-giant-fraud

Indeed, with China's ban (at least I'll finally be able to get a new gpu for my gaming rig, maybe? https://futurism.com/the-byte/china-bitcoin-market-gpus) and India looking to try and follow suit (https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-future-51625156640), I'm still betting crypto is more Segway than Automobile--an interesting niche thing but not something that revolutionizes the world.

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Leon's avatar

I think the elephant in the room that everyone ignores at their own peril is that technology doesn't exist in a vacuum - politics matter greatly. And many of the goals sought by defi and cryptocurrency are anathema to sovereign governments everywhere (from China to the US). In other words, they simply won't allow much of this to happen because it means the loss of control (over fraud, over taxation, over money, etc).

The technology is compelling, but my bet is that it will be partially co-opted by banks and governments to make the system run faster and more efficiently, without giving up the control and intermediation that currently exist( and in fact may increase it).

See how China co-opted certain technologies with their e-RMB digital currency for an example of where I think things are progressing towards

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